Six PhDs. Science and technology leaders who all do the work.
Ensemble Intelligence brings together climate and environmental expertise with geographic and socioeconomic data to understand what matters to your decision. You work directly with the scientists doing the analysis, from framing the question through interpreting the evidence.
Understand the likelihood of scarcity events, how conditions vary across locations, and how that risk may change over time.
What Ensemble delivers
Six core services. Most projects are one of them; some combine two. Each is scoped to your question and your decision, not to a standard package.
Evaluation of locations, assets, and investments using the relevant environmental, geographic, and socioeconomic information, from physical conditions and natural resources to land use, infrastructure, and workforce.
How this service works for Site selection analysisAssessment of how variability, trends, and extremes in climate conditions and water availability affect assets, operations, and investments, including which uncertainties matter most to the decision.
How this service works for Climate and water riskAnalysis of past conditions and fit-for-purpose forecasts, from how often particular events have occurred in a location to historical analogs for what may lie ahead.
How this service works for Forecasting and historical analyticsResearch and design of weather derivatives, parametric structures, and index-based products that transfer weather risk, for power systems, agriculture, and insurance.
How this service works for Weather-risk products and hedgingIndependent evaluation of models, datasets, forecasts, and analytical claims: what is robust, what is uncertain, and what can credibly inform a decision.
How this service works for Independent technical reviewTechnical roadmaps and funding proposals for climate, weather, water, and energy programs: the plan that holds up to scrutiny, and the document that wins the support to build it.
How this service works for Roadmaps and proposalsWhere Ensemble sits
Broadly available risk scores are generic. Enterprise platforms are powerful but costly to adopt and use. Both start from a predefined structure. Ensemble starts from your business question, scientist-led from problem framing to decision support.
Analysis, data, and methods are chosen around the problem you need to solve, not a predefined product. End to end, from strategy to the tooling your team runs.
Work directly with the scientists doing the analysis, from problem framing through decision support. We build you state-of-the-art science and systems, then train your team and hand them off.
Get rigorous analysis without the expense, implementation time, and internal resources required by an enterprise platform or an institutional consultancy.
How an engagement runs
Four stages. The first one is the reason the rest stay small.
What is being decided, by whom, and what a wrong answer costs.
The datasets, methods, scenarios, and uncertainty treatment the question warrants.
Produce the analysis, then attack it: sensitivity tests, stated limitations, review with your decision makers and internal experts.
Turn results into reporting language and operational changes. We train your team on anything we built and stay available.
Illustrative deliverable
One example of the form our deliverables take.
Illustrative Ensemble analysis
Board briefing · Meridian Foods (fictional) · Slide 4 of 11
Two of eleven sourcing regions carry most of the projected water risk.
Deficit change by region
Uncertainty: ranking of the top two regions is robust across the ensemble; the ordering below rank four is not. Regions C and D should be treated as indistinguishable.
The founding partners
Six scientists and technical leaders who met at ClimateAi, with well over a hundred years on these problems between them. All six still do the work and can explain it to any room.
Founding Partner
Diego is an atmospheric scientist and product leader specializing in weather-risk indices, crop-yield forecasting, and financial risk, with first-hand markets experience as a former derivatives trader and structurer at BBVA.
Full profile for Diego Alfaro
Founding Partner
David is an applied scientist and technology leader specializing in climate risk, AI/ML, probabilistic forecasting, and water and energy systems. He makes technical findings land with any audience, from engineering teams to boards.
Full profile for David (Dave) Farnham
Founding Partner
Isaac is a scientist who builds weather intelligence that operators can actually use, after two decades applying machine learning to hard physical sensing problems for the Navy, DARPA, ONR, and NATO.
Full profile for Isaac Gerg
Founding Partner
Laura is an atmospheric scientist and data scientist specializing in boundary-layer meteorology, turbulence, and air quality. She combines research with building commercial climate-risk products, designing monitoring networks, and communicating environmental risk to communities and decision-makers.
Full profile for Laura Herrera
Founding Partner
Carlos is an atmospheric scientist applying climate science and machine learning to energy, agriculture, insurance, and public safety. He combines research and product development with public-sector leadership, communication with decision-makers, and education.
Full profile for Carlos Hoyos
Founding Partner
Arik is a hydrologist and data scientist specializing in groundwater, drought, low flows, reservoirs, flooding, remote sensing, and scalable environmental modeling.
Full profile for Arik TashieStart a conversation
You do not need a fully specified project. Tell us what matters, and we will tell you honestly whether an engagement can help, and say so plainly if it cannot.
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